Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of each week.
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HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 19.1
PROJECTED POINTS: 17.3
Michelle: We have ourselves an oh-so-loved QB-WR stack in the HIGHER category! Burrow and Chase did not hit these marks in either of the first two games of the season, but they absolutely should find their groove on Monday night in a delicious matchup. No defense has allowed more fantasy points to the QB position than the Commanders' unit since the start of the 2023 season and only the Eagles have allowed more points to the wide receiver position in that span.
Baker Mayfield put up nearly 30 points against the Commanders in Week 1, and the struggling Daniel Jones scored 18.3 points against them in Week 2. Wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Malik Nabers all scored more than 22 fantasy points in their matchup against Washington this season.
If Burrow and Chase can’t get it done this week, then we all need to be officially concerned for their fantasy future under Zac Taylor.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.0
Matt: We knew Jim Harbaugh would feature the run game in the new Chargers scheme, but no one had Dobbins as the league’s leading rusher through two games. He’s been a big-play machine, racking up 266 yards on just 27 carries (9.9 yards per carry), has forced nine missed tackles on those carries and is averaging 4.8 yards after contact per attempt, per Next Gen Stats.
Dobbins still hasn’t unlocked consistent long speed in his comeback from a torn Achilles, so things could realistically get even better as the season progresses. While he draws a tough matchup with Pittsburgh in Week 3, I’m trusting in Harbaugh’s commitment to the run, L.A.’s surging offensive line and Dobbins’ own talent to push him past 11 points again on Sunday.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.4
Michelle: Chicago's offense has been a total disaster through the first two weeks, but the Bears should be able to get their running game rolling against a Colts defense that has allowed an absurd 474 rushing yards so far this season. That is the most rushing yards allowed by any NFL team over the first two games of a season since the 1978 Colts.
Swift has been inefficient this year, but he is at least dominating snaps in Chicago's backfield, playing on 67.2 percent of the team’s offensive reps, while no other Bears RB has more than four carries on the season. Swift is also leading Chicago’s running back room with six targets in 2024. If Swift can’t score double-digit fantasy points in this matchup, then it might be time to drop him from your roster.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.0
Matt: Through two weeks, Godwin is the highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy. Just like we drew it up. In all seriousness, though, he is absolutely thriving out of the slot in Tampa Bay, with Baker Mayfield dealing and Mike Evans drawing top cornerback coverage. Most importantly, Godwin already has two touchdowns, matching his 2023 total and only one short of his 2022 total. He likely won’t be the WR1 all year, but he already is a WR1 in my book.
The Bucs will face the Broncos and Pat Surtain II on Sunday, but Evans should draw the majority of Surtain’s attention, which could mean a boosted target share for Godwin. He’s been closer to doubling this projection than missing it and will do so again in Week 3.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.4
Matt: As of mid-September, I’m willing to say that George Kittle and Trey McBride are still better tight ends than Bowers. After that, the rookie might be the front-runner. He leads the position in targets (17), receptions (15) and yards (156) and is the TE2 overall without yet scoring a touchdown. If we were starting a PPR draft today, I’d be looking at Bowers in the third or fourth round. He’s a legitimate must-start in every league.
In Week 3, Bowers and the Raiders get the winless Carolina Panthers, who allowed six catches for 69 yards and two TDs to the Foster Moreau-Juwan Johnson combo in the opener. Bowers doesn’t even need his first NFL touchdown to crack this projection, but he’ll get it anyway.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 19.0
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.5
Matt: That’s right, it’s a LOWER stack! Despite the highlights you may have caught on social media, Richardson is consistently one of the worst passers in the league. He has a 49.1 completion percentage, which is the lowest by a QB over his team’s first two games of a season since the Buccaneers’ Josh Freeman (45.3%) in 2013 (min. 50 pass attempts). As a result, Pittman logged just 52 receiving yards ... in both games combined.
Now these two Colts draw Jaylon Johnson and the Bears' defense. While C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins were good against Chicago in prime time, Richardson is not Stroud and Pittman is not Collins. This could be an ugly game, and though Richardson will add value with his legs, it won’t be enough to overcome the struggling air attack, which means both he and Pittman will fall short of their projections on Sunday.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.8
Michelle: Despite scoring a touchdown in each game this season, Henry has still averaged just 13.6 fantasy points per game, scoring 10.6 points in Week 1 and 16.6 in Week 2. Over Henry’s last eight contests played on the road, he has averaged a measly 8.4 fantasy points -- scoring fewer than five points in half of those games.
Henry is not only being out-snapped by teammate Justice Hill through two games this season, but he has been on the field for only ONE of the Ravens’ third-down plays. Yes, Henry is always a good bet to score a touchdown, but he has actually been over-exceeding in that area, as well, scoring two rushing TDs despite having just four red zone carries.
With the way the Ravens have been utilizing their backs, I expect Hill to be on the field far too often in what should be a close matchup in Dallas.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.2
Matt: Last season, with no one else to take many carries in Tampa Bay, White averaged 7.9 fantasy points per game as a rusher (adding 8.1 per game as a receiver). So far this season, with rookie Bucky Irving shouldering eight carries per game, White is averaging just 2.5 points per game as a rusher. This phenomenon drastically reduces his ceiling and makes him heavily dependent on game script.
Bad news in Week 3: The game script should be quite “positive†against an 0-2 Broncos squad with no offense to speak of. Unless you believe in a Denver upset, you can’t confidently project White for five catches and 40 receiving yards, which is what he needs to top this projection, barring a rare touchdown.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.4
Michelle: Over the first two weeks, Diggs has a total of 10 receptions for 70 receiving yards. Outside of his two short touchdown catches in Week 1, Diggs has scored just 14.5 fantasy points this season. It is turning into a trend that Diggs scores under double-digit fantasy points on the regular, as he has logged fewer than nine fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games played, dating back to last season with the Buffalo Bills.
For Diggs to hit 13.4 fantasy points this week, he will very likely need to find the end zone, but this projects to be a tough matchup for the former Viking. Minnesota’s defense has not allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver this season; in fact, it has allowed only two total offensive touchdowns. Revenge games are fun, but fantasy points are fun-er.
